Weather-driven variation in dengue activity in Australia examined using a process-based modeling approach

Melanie Bannister-Tyrrell, Craig Williams, Scott A. Ritchie, Gina Rau, Janette Lindesay, Geoff Mercer, David Harley

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17 Citations (Scopus)


The impact of weather variation on dengue transmission in Cairns, Australia, was determined by applying a process-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) that incorporated local meteorologic, entomologic, and demographic data. Analysis showed that inter-annual weather variation is one of the significant determinants of dengue outbreak receptivity. Cross-correlation analyses showed that DENSiM simulated epidemics of similar relative magnitude and timing to those historically recorded in reported dengue cases in Cairns during 1991-2009, (r = 0.372, P < 0.01). The DENSiM model can now be used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on dengue transmission. Understanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range, seasonality, and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaptation strategies to minimize future disease burden in Australia.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)65-72
Number of pages8
JournalAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2013
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Parasitology
  • Virology
  • Infectious Diseases

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