The development of predictive tools for pre-emptive dengue vector control: A study of Aedes aegypti abundance and meteorological variables in North Queensland, Australia

Aishah H. Azil, Sharron A. Long, Scott A. Ritchie, Craig Williams

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

53 Citations (Scopus)


OBJECTIVES: To describe the meteorological influences on adult dengue vector abundance in Australia for the development of predictive models to trigger pre-emptive control operation. METHODS: Multiple linear regression analyses were performed using meteorological data and female Aedes aegypti collection data from BG-Sentinel Mosquito traps placed at 11 monitoring sites in Cairns, north Queensland. RESULTS: Considerable regression coefficients (R 2 = 0.64 and 0.61) for longer-and shorter-term factor models respectively were derived. Longer-term factors significantly associated with abundance of adult vectors were mean minimum temperature (lagged 6 month) and mean daily temperature (lagged 4 month), explaining the predictable increase in abundance during the wet season. Factors explaining fluctuation in abundance in the shorter term were mean relative humidity over the previous 2 week and current daily average temperature. Rainfall variables were not found to be strong predictors of A. aegypti abundance in either longer-or shorter-term models. CONCLUSIONS: The implications of these findings for the development of useful predictive models for vector abundance risks are discussed. Such models can be used to guide the application of pre-emptive dengue vector control, and thereby enhance disease management.

Number of pages8
JournalTropical Medicine and International Health
Issue number10
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2010
Externally publishedYes


  • Aedes aegypti
  • dengue
  • predictive models
  • surveillance
  • vector control

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Parasitology
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Infectious Diseases

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