Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators, Ashkan Afshin, Patrick John Sur, Kairsten A. Fay, Leslie Cornaby, Giannina Ferrara, Joseph S. Salama, Erin C. Mullany, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Zegeye Abebe, Mohsen Afarideh, Anju Aggarwal, Sutapa Agrawal, Tomi Akinyemiju, Fares Alahdab, Umar Bacha, Victoria F. Bachman, Hamid Badali, Alaa Badawi & 31 others Isabela M. Bensenor, Eduardo Bernabe, Sibhatu Kassa K. Biadgilign, Stan H. Biryukov, Leah E. Cahill, Juan J. Carrero, Kelly M. Cercy, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Anh Kim Dang, Meaza Girma Degefa, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Alireza Esteghamati, Sadaf Esteghamati, Jessica Fanzo, Carla Sofia e.Sá Farinha, Maryam S. Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, Joao C. Fernandes, Luisa Sorio Flor, Nataliya A. Foigt, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Morsaleh Ganji, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Richard F. Gillum, Alessandra C. Goulart, Giuseppe Grosso, Idris Guessous, Samer Hamidi, Yohannes Melaku

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Abstract

Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity. Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction)among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of disease-specific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome. Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]10–12)deaths and 255 million (234–274)DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1–5]deaths and 70 million [34–118]DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2–4]deaths and 82 million [59–109]DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1–4]deaths and 65 million [41–92]DALYs)were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates. Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

LanguageEnglish
Pages1958-1972
Number of pages15
JournalThe Lancet
Volume393
Issue number10184
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 May 2019

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

@article{d50d2c53b0f6483e9ead756e41305536,
title = "Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017",
abstract = "Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity. Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction)among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of disease-specific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome. Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95{\%} uncertainty interval [UI]10–12)deaths and 255 million (234–274)DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1–5]deaths and 70 million [34–118]DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2–4]deaths and 82 million [59–109]DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1–4]deaths and 65 million [41–92]DALYs)were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates. Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
author = "{GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators} and Ashkan Afshin and Sur, {Patrick John} and Fay, {Kairsten A.} and Leslie Cornaby and Giannina Ferrara and Salama, {Joseph S.} and Mullany, {Erin C.} and Abate, {Kalkidan Hassen} and Cristiana Abbafati and Zegeye Abebe and Mohsen Afarideh and Anju Aggarwal and Sutapa Agrawal and Tomi Akinyemiju and Fares Alahdab and Umar Bacha and Bachman, {Victoria F.} and Hamid Badali and Alaa Badawi and Bensenor, {Isabela M.} and Eduardo Bernabe and Biadgilign, {Sibhatu Kassa K.} and Biryukov, {Stan H.} and Cahill, {Leah E.} and Carrero, {Juan J.} and Cercy, {Kelly M.} and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Dang, {Anh Kim} and Degefa, {Meaza Girma} and {El Sayed Zaki}, Maysaa and Alireza Esteghamati and Sadaf Esteghamati and Jessica Fanzo and Farinha, {Carla Sofia e.S{\'a}} and Farvid, {Maryam S.} and Farshad Farzadfar and Feigin, {Valery L.} and Fernandes, {Joao C.} and Flor, {Luisa Sorio} and Foigt, {Nataliya A.} and Forouzanfar, {Mohammad H.} and Morsaleh Ganji and Geleijnse, {Johanna M.} and Gillum, {Richard F.} and Goulart, {Alessandra C.} and Giuseppe Grosso and Idris Guessous and Samer Hamidi and Yohannes Melaku",
year = "2019",
month = "5",
day = "11",
doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30041-8",
language = "English",
volume = "393",
pages = "1958--1972",
journal = "Lancet",
issn = "0140-6736",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "10184",

}

Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. / GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators.

In: The Lancet, Vol. 393, No. 10184, 11.05.2019, p. 1958-1972.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990–2017

T2 - Lancet

AU - GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators

AU - Afshin, Ashkan

AU - Sur, Patrick John

AU - Fay, Kairsten A.

AU - Cornaby, Leslie

AU - Ferrara, Giannina

AU - Salama, Joseph S.

AU - Mullany, Erin C.

AU - Abate, Kalkidan Hassen

AU - Abbafati, Cristiana

AU - Abebe, Zegeye

AU - Afarideh, Mohsen

AU - Aggarwal, Anju

AU - Agrawal, Sutapa

AU - Akinyemiju, Tomi

AU - Alahdab, Fares

AU - Bacha, Umar

AU - Bachman, Victoria F.

AU - Badali, Hamid

AU - Badawi, Alaa

AU - Bensenor, Isabela M.

AU - Bernabe, Eduardo

AU - Biadgilign, Sibhatu Kassa K.

AU - Biryukov, Stan H.

AU - Cahill, Leah E.

AU - Carrero, Juan J.

AU - Cercy, Kelly M.

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Dang, Anh Kim

AU - Degefa, Meaza Girma

AU - El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa

AU - Esteghamati, Alireza

AU - Esteghamati, Sadaf

AU - Fanzo, Jessica

AU - Farinha, Carla Sofia e.Sá

AU - Farvid, Maryam S.

AU - Farzadfar, Farshad

AU - Feigin, Valery L.

AU - Fernandes, Joao C.

AU - Flor, Luisa Sorio

AU - Foigt, Nataliya A.

AU - Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.

AU - Ganji, Morsaleh

AU - Geleijnse, Johanna M.

AU - Gillum, Richard F.

AU - Goulart, Alessandra C.

AU - Grosso, Giuseppe

AU - Guessous, Idris

AU - Hamidi, Samer

AU - Melaku, Yohannes

PY - 2019/5/11

Y1 - 2019/5/11

N2 - Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity. Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction)among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of disease-specific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome. Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]10–12)deaths and 255 million (234–274)DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1–5]deaths and 70 million [34–118]DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2–4]deaths and 82 million [59–109]DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1–4]deaths and 65 million [41–92]DALYs)were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates. Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity. Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction)among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of disease-specific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome. Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]10–12)deaths and 255 million (234–274)DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1–5]deaths and 70 million [34–118]DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2–4]deaths and 82 million [59–109]DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1–4]deaths and 65 million [41–92]DALYs)were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates. Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85065230885&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30041-8

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30041-8

M3 - Article

VL - 393

SP - 1958

EP - 1972

JO - Lancet

JF - Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 10184

ER -