Anti-Müllerian hormone does not predict time to pregnancy: results of a prospective cohort study

M. Depmann, S. L. Broer, M. J.C. Eijkemans, I. A.J. van Rooij, G. J. Scheffer, J. Heimensem, B. W. Mol, F. J.M. Broekmans

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In order to study whether ovarian reserve tests (ORTs) can predict time to ongoing pregnancy, we conducted a prospective cohort study in a cohort of healthy pregnancy planners. A total of 102 pregnancy planners were followed for 1 year, or until ongoing pregnancy occurred, after cessation of contraceptives). A baseline measurement of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and antral follicle count (AFC) was conducted. At the end of follow-up, a semen analysis was performed and chlamydia antibody titres were assessed. A univariate prediction model demonstrated age and the AFC to be significantly capable of predicting time to pregnancy (hazard ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.87–0.98, p = 0.01; 1.04, 95% CI 1.01–1.07, p = 0.02 respectively). In the multivariate model, however, correcting for female age, we found no predictive effect of AMH, basal FSH or the AFC for time to ongoing pregnancy (hazard ratios 1.43, 95% CI 0.84–2.46, p = 0.36; 0.96, 95% CI 0.86–1.06, p = 0.43; 1.03, 95% CI 1.00–1.07, p = 0.08, respectively). This was confirmed by the low C-statistic. We therefore concluded that baseline AMH, AFC or FSH levels do not predict time to ongoing pregnancy in a cohort of healthy pregnancy planners. These results limit the usability of these ORTs in the assessment of current fertility.

Number of pages5
JournalGynecological Endocrinology
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - 3 Aug 2017


  • AMH
  • conception
  • fecundability
  • prediction
  • pregnancy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism
  • Endocrinology
  • Obstetrics and Gynaecology

Cite this

Depmann, M., Broer, S. L., Eijkemans, M. J. C., van Rooij, I. A. J., Scheffer, G. J., Heimensem, J., ... Broekmans, F. J. M. (2017). Anti-Müllerian hormone does not predict time to pregnancy: results of a prospective cohort study. Gynecological Endocrinology, 33(8), 644-648.